Yankees Prospect Over/Unders

How many home runs will Gary Sanchez hit?

In Las Vegas fashion, we set various over/under marks for various Yankees prospects in 2011 and will continue the discussion in our subscribers-only forum. What is the over/under for Gary Sanchez's home run total? How low will Bryan Mitchell's ERA be this upcoming season? How many strikeouts will Dellin Betances have in 2011? We discuss all this and more.


ERA Mark For Bryan Mitchell - 3.50: He finished his debut season last year posting a 3.67 ERA for the Gulf Coast League Yankees. Known for his power fastball-plus curveball combination, while it's true maintaining a consistent changeup has been a work in progress, he seems poised to take that next step in his development after finishing the season last year with 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. UNDER.

Batting Average For Austin Romine - .280: He has only accomplished this feat once in his three-year career, hitting .300 for the Charleston RiverDogs back in 2008 before hitting .276 and .267 respectively in his following two seasons. He is a better hitter than he has shown recently. Whether it has been learning to endure the struggles of catching a full season or if the pronounced pitcher's parks he has played his home games over the previous two years are the reasons for the lower averages, he seems ripe to bounce back with better numbers in 2011. OVER.

Home Run Total For Bradley Suttle - 17: Only four Yankee position prospects eclipsed this total a year ago [two we predicted in this article series - Brandon Laird and Jesus Montero] and Suttle has just 21 career regular season home runs to his credit thus far. However, he finished the 2010 season with a bang, hitting 12 home runs in the second-half of the season last year [including the playoffs] and he seems ready to carry that over in 2011. OVER.

Number Of Levels For Brett Marshall - 1.5: He was simply dominant upon his return from Tommy John surgery last year, going a combined 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA over three minor league levels [including his rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League]. He held his own with a late-season promotion to Tampa last year, which should be his likely starting destination in 2011, and if he keeps his momentum going he should see some ample time at the Double-A level too. OVER.

Error Total for Corban Joseph - 15: The offensive-minded second baseman tallied 20 errors in 2010, seven of them coming in his 31-game trial at the Double-A level. He had a one-month stretch in Tampa last year, however, where he had committed just one error and seemed to have ironed out his defensive kinks. He has made a lot of progress defensively and we think he'll prove his progress will continue to be steady in 2011. UNDER.

Number Of Strikeouts For Graham Stoneburner - 150: Only one Yankee pitching prospect eclipsed this total last year [Hector Noesi], but a few came close, including Stoneburner. He struck out 137 batters in 2010 and did so while struggling to find a consistent slider. That pitch was very effective late in the year and it should serve him well getting more strikeouts in 2011. OVER.

Stolen Base Total For Slade Heathcott - 30: We inaccurately predicted Heathcott would eclipse this mark a year ago. In fact, he tallied just half that mark [15] in his debut season with the Charleston RiverDogs. However, he spent the first six weeks of the season in Extended Spring Training and it was also his first year back from knee surgery. He should bounce back in a big way speed-wise in 2011 and possibly obliterate this mark. OVER.

ERA Mark For Nik Turley - 3.50: His career mark of 3.27 is clearly under the number already, but the tall left-hander did post a 4.38 ERA for the Staten Island Yankees last year. A bit too inconsistent a year ago, however, there were times where he was absolutely brilliant. Being more consistent with his delivery would go a long way towards surpassing this goal in 2011 and he just spent the entire offseason at the minor league complex in preparation for his first taste of the long-season leagues. That kind of preparation shouldn't go unrewarded. UNDER.

Home Run Total For Gary Sanchez - 17: Even though Sanchez clubbed eight home runs in just 173 at-bats in his debut season a year ago, this one is going to be close. Jesus Montero had 17 home runs in his first taste of the long-season leagues when he broke in with Charleston [Sanchez's likely destination in 2011] and even though Sanchez's power probably grades just a tick below at the same point in their careers, Sanchez seems to have the more consistent swing. He should find enough success in the South Atlantic League road parks to make this one a race. OVER.

Number Of Strikeouts For Dellin Betances - 150: His career-high in strikeouts is 135 with the Charleston RiverDogs back in 2008 and it came with a career-high 22 starts. Finally healthy again and now armed with a more consistent changeup and a better delivery, he should go back to posting some dominating strikeout numbers. Only a possible injury or a big league promotion stands in his way of crushing this number. OVER.

Batting Average For David Adams - .290: Keep in mind that only one Yankee position prospect hit higher than this number in 2010 [Robert Lyerly with a .312 average] and Adams boasts just a career mark of .281. That said, however, he was hitting .309 before his ankle injury last year and his bat has steadily improved since his debut season back in 2008. OVER.

Are you a monthly or 3-month subscriber to PinstripesPlus.com? Why not get two months free AND get 4 issues of our PinstripesPlus Magazine included by becoming an annual subscriber? Upgrade today to get the most out of your subscription.

Become an annual subscriber today!

PinstripesPlus.com Recommended Stories